Aug 18: Retail Brief

Happy Monday! When I first started this blog, my intent was two-fold. One was to think better.  Writing helps me clarify my thoughts which then makes me a better thinker.  The second was to distill what I am reading and learning - a cliff-notes of my experience.  Starting this week, every Monday, I will share a curated Retail Brief highlighting the most important stories in sales, strategy, marketing, and leadership shaping the industry. My goal is to cut through the noise and surface the moves that signal where retail is heading—and what they mean for brands, retailers, and consumers.

👉 If you find these insights valuable, follow Vistara Collective on LinkedIn for more strategy perspectives and retail analysis.

Nuuly Delivers Double-Digit Growth, Outpaces Rental Rivals
Nuuly, Urban Outfitters’ rental platform, reported strong Q2 growth with revenue and profits rising double digits, outpacing Rent the Runway’s slower trajectory. The performance highlights how being embedded in a broader retail ecosystem (Anthropologie/UO customer base + logistics scale) allows rental to scale profitably, while standalone competitors (like Rent The Runway) remain challenged.

Ulta & Target Break Up After 5-Year Run
Ulta and Target announced they will wind down their shop-in-shop partnership by 2026, phasing out ~600 mini-Ulta locations. The arrangement gave Ulta a visibility boost when beauty competition intensified, but with over 1,400 standalone stores, a powerful loyalty ecosystem, and strong DTC, Ulta no longer needs Target’s reach. For Target, the loss frees up space to push higher-turn categories and owned brands.

By contrast, Kohl’s and Sephora continue to scale their shop-in-shop model, now in over 1,000 stores and on pace to deliver $2B in annual sales through Kohl’s. Sephora benefits from Kohl’s suburban footprint and incremental sales without undermining its luxury positioning, while Kohl’s gains a traffic-driving category. The divergence highlights two models: Ulta stepping back as its maturity reduces the need for external distribution, versus Sephora leaning in to wholesale expansion to fuel growth.

Saks Global’s Personalization Push, but Structural Issues Persist
Saks Global has rolled out AI-driven personalization across Saks.com, delivering revenue and conversion lifts. Expansion is planned for Neiman Marcus and Bergdorf Goodman. Yet with debt north of $5B, downgraded credit, and Q1 sales down double digits, Saks is far from out of the woods. The company is betting that digital sophistication will drive engagement, but survival depends on stabilizing sales and managing creditor pressure ahead of holiday.

Tariffs: Equal Pain, Unequal Impact
Tariffs raise costs for every retailer, but the ability to pass them on to consumers depends on category, proposition, and brand equity. In discretionary categories, price hikes risk volume losses; weak propositions leave customers ready to defect; and retailers with shallow equity see less tolerance for higher prices. Tariffs effectively widen the gap between winners and losers—brands with loyal followings can push through increases, while others risk customer attrition.

15,000 Store Closures Loom in 2025
Analysts forecast that U.S. closures could hit 15,000 this year, with Macy’s alone planning to shutter 150 by 2026. While a sign of legacy weakness, the retrenchment could free up mall and strip-center space for digitally native brands seeking physical presence. The dynamic accelerates the bifurcation between shrinking legacy banners and growing disruptors.

Victoria’s Secret Strengthens Creative Bench
Victoria’s Secret & Co hired Kasia Bilinski, former Calvin Klein exec, as Chief Design Officer. The move signals an attempt to sharpen its design vision as the company continues to navigate brand repositioning and consumer relevance in an intensely competitive intimates category.

Brooks Running Accelerates, Jumps Nearly 20% in Q2
Brooks Running reported 20% global revenue growth in Q2, driven by strong retail demand in the U.S. and Canada . Coming off a record-breaking 2024 with ~9% YoY growth, Brooks is proving that performance brands with authentic heritage and R&D-backed innovation can outpace volatility in athletic footwear. It's a compelling case for investing in brand credibility and direct consumer trust.

Thanks for reading this week’s Retail Brief. I’ll be back next Monday with more insights on the strategies, trends, and shifts shaping the industry. In the meantime, I’d love to connect—follow Vistara Collective on LinkedIn for more updates and perspectives.